Order, or not
Probability runs on counting, and counting runs on one question: does order matter? Answer that and the formula picks itself.
Arrange everything and you get a factorial: , read n factorial, where is the number of distinct items being placed. Five books on a shelf go ways: five choices for the first slot, four for the next, and the cascade runs down to one. Take only of the and keep the order, and the cascade simply stops early: , a permutation, read n P r. Here is the size of the pool and is how many are chosen; gold, silver and bronze from ten sprinters is .
Drop the order and every selection has been counted times over — once per reshuffle — so divide it back out: , a combination, read n choose r. A committee of three from eight is , not 336. And a free identity worth remembering: — choosing who goes is the same act as choosing who stays behind.
The exam tell is in the noun. A slate, a podium, a ranking, a sequence: order matters, use nPr. A committee, a hand, a set, a pair: order does not, use nCr. Getting that one word right is worth more marks than any arithmetic in this lesson.