Grade 12 Math · How good is the fit
The squared surprise
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The squared surprise

Fitting a line is easy; grading it is the skill. The grade is R2=r2R^2 = r^2R-squared equals r squared — the coefficient of determination, where rr is the correlation and R2R^2 is the SHARE of the variation in yy that the line accounts for. Both are naked numbers; R2R^2 lives between 0 and 1 and is usually quoted as a percentage.

Now the surprise this lesson is built on. A correlation of r=0.8r = 0.8 sounds like a strong 80%. It is not: R2=0.64R^2 = 0.64, so the line explains 64% of the variation and 36% is still doing whatever it likes. Squaring a number below one always shrinks it, and the shrink is the honest part — it is why researchers quote R2R^2 and salespeople quote rr.

Two more graders finish the chapter. Percent error, PE=xmeasxaccxaccPE = \dfrac{|x_{\text{meas}} - x_{\text{acc}}|}{x_{\text{acc}}}, compares ONE reading with a known true value: xmeasx_{\text{meas}} is what the instrument said, xaccx_{\text{acc}} is the accepted value, and the accepted value goes on the bottom every time — it is the thing you claim to know. And the weighted mean, xˉ=n1xˉ1+n2xˉ2n1+n2\bar{x} = \dfrac{n_1\bar{x}_1 + n_2\bar{x}_2}{n_1 + n_2}, combines two group averages: here subscript 1 means group one and subscript 2 means group two, nn is a group's SIZE and xˉ\bar{x} with a subscript is that group's mean. Averaging the two averages is the classic wound — it hands a section of 10 the same vote as a section of 90.