The squared surprise
Fitting a line is easy; grading it is the skill. The grade is — R-squared equals r squared — the coefficient of determination, where is the correlation and is the SHARE of the variation in that the line accounts for. Both are naked numbers; lives between 0 and 1 and is usually quoted as a percentage.
Now the surprise this lesson is built on. A correlation of sounds like a strong 80%. It is not: , so the line explains 64% of the variation and 36% is still doing whatever it likes. Squaring a number below one always shrinks it, and the shrink is the honest part — it is why researchers quote and salespeople quote .
Two more graders finish the chapter. Percent error, , compares ONE reading with a known true value: is what the instrument said, is the accepted value, and the accepted value goes on the bottom every time — it is the thing you claim to know. And the weighted mean, , combines two group averages: here subscript 1 means group one and subscript 2 means group two, is a group's SIZE and with a subscript is that group's mean. Averaging the two averages is the classic wound — it hands a section of 10 the same vote as a section of 90.